The second term of U.S. President Donald Trump commenced with profound ramifications for global political and economic dynamics. Contrary to the expectations of many analysts, it was not surprising to some international relations commentators who had accurately predicted Trump’s re-election, anticipating that the major impacts of his administration would once again be felt primarily in military and geopolitical spheres. Even prior to his formal inauguration, significant political transformations appeared imminent in the Middle East, particularly in the aftermath of regime change in Syria. Furthermore, Trump’s re-emergence on the global stage seemed to have catalyzed a tacit consensus among major capital powers regarding the economic partitioning of Ukraine, with both the United States and Russia appearing to endorse this division.

Within this context, Türkiye has encountered a complex political climate characterized by renewed constitutional reform discussions, particularly as part of the second phase of peace negotiations. Given that Türkiye’s Constitution has undergone numerous amendments since 1982—frequently driven by democratization efforts and widely accepted within Turkish society—the necessity of further institutional reform under the rubric of democratization remains a subject of politically debate. The dissolution of the terrorist organization and the initiation of a new peace process have sparked suspects that Türkiye’s aspiration to become a “terrorism-free” state may evolve, especially with potential constitutional modifications such as the recognition of mother-tongue education and broader definitions of citizenship. In the post-Assad regional order, Türkiye is expected to strengthen its geopolitical stature in the Middle East and continue to command respect in broader Muslim World, bolstered by its leadership role concerning Gaza. Achieving this goals requires strengthening internal social cohesion in the Homeland.

Amid these regional developments, Türkiye’s military capabilities are increasingly seen as critical to maintaining regional stability. The destroying impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly affected the European Union’s strategic posture, a trend that has become more pronounced in the wake of diminished U.S. engagement. In this scenario, a politically stable and unified Türkiye, aligning strategically with its transatlantic allies, particularly the United States, assumes heightened importance. Moreover, it is anticipated that a U.S.-led military intervention in Iran may soon take place, potentially triggering substantial regional upheavals. In contrast to the protracted Syrian civil conflict, military operations in Iran are expected to be more shortly due to pre-existing internal dissent, raising the likelihood of the swift collapse of the Khomeinist regime in the near future. A parallel scenario may also unfold in Yemen.

Considering of Iran’s historical and geopolitical significance, it is expected that a post-regime Iran is going to evolve to a federal system of governance. Similarly, the newly established Syrian government under President Ahmed al-Shara—structured with ethnic representation in mind—signals a possible transition towards federalism in Syria as well. If these developments were to occur, Lebanon could also be integrated into a broader federal framework in the Syrian land as Hezbollah’s influence diminishes in Lebanon, potentially bringing its southern regions under Israeli control. These regional transformations are anticipated to reach the completed within the remaining years of Trump’s second presidential term. A crucial question emerging from these prospective changes pertains to whether Turkish communities will be represented in the new constitutional configurations of post-regime Iran and Syria.

In anticipation of these geopolitical shifts, Turkish communities across the Middle East may emerge as influential actors in the formation of new governments, thereby presenting a significant focal point for Turkish foreign policy. Subsequently, in a post-regime, federal Iran, Israel is expected to secure considerable strategic gains in terms of regional security. Nonetheless, it must be acknowledged that a geopolitically empowered Türkiye may pose the principal constraint to Israel’s military ambitions in the Middle East.

In response, Türkiye must sustain its strategic international partnerships, undergirded by robust economic policy frameworks, and adhere to a doctrine of peaceful coexistence in the short to medium term. In doing so, Türkiye is likely to position itself as a pivotal actor in resolving regional crises—much like its potential role in the territorial restructuring of Ukraine—and thereby contribute meaningfully to the shaping of a new geopolitical architecture.

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Mehmet Cem ŞAHİN – Law Expert
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